Four big banks report before the bell. Here is what the numbers need to answer

Every earnings season opens with the banks, and this one opens with four of them on the same morning. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are all scheduled to report third-quarter results before Tuesday's opening bell, with every release due by 8 a.m. ET. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report on Wednesday.

Depending on when you read this, the numbers may already be out. Either way, these are the questions they need to answer.

What analysts expect

Analysts expect profits to rise from a year ago. According to LSEG estimates compiled on October 7, as reported by Reuters:

• JPMorgan Chase: $5.94 a share, against $5.07 a year earlier
• Citigroup: $2.41, against $2.24
• Wells Fargo: $1.85, against $1.66
• Goldman Sachs: $12.44, against $12.25
• Bank of America (Wednesday): $1.10, against $1.06
• Morgan Stanley (Wednesday): $2.94, against $2.80

Consensus figures move, and different surveys capture them at different times. A later LSEG survey cited by CNBC on Tuesday morning put Goldman Sachs at $13.02 a share on $16.71 billion of revenue, and Citigroup at $2.66 a share on $23.72 billion of revenue.

Question one: is dealmaking really back?

The banks gave unusually different signals at an investor conference in September. JPMorgan Co-President Doug Petno said the bank expected third-quarter investment banking fees and trading revenue each to rise by a mid-to-high teens percentage. Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan warned that his bank's investment banking fees would fall at least 10% from a year earlier, with trading roughly flat. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon told investors to expect a muted quarter, with fixed income softer and the equities business strong.

Those comments cannot all describe the same market in the same way, which is why the actual fee numbers matter. Goldman has topped earnings expectations for 12 straight quarters, according to CNBC.

Question two: what are 5% yields doing to lending?

Higher rates can help banks earn more on loans than they pay on deposits. JPMorgan raised its full-year net interest income outlook to about $105.5 billion in July. Wells Fargo has said loan growth this year is running better than it previously expected, and its chief financial officer, Mike Santomassimo, described consumer spending and credit trends as healthy.

But the 10-year Treasury yield has spent much of October above 5%, and higher borrowing costs eventually test borrowers. For Wells Fargo, StreetAccount consensus calls for net interest income of $12.66 billion and a provision for credit losses of $1.14 billion. For Citigroup, it expects $2.41 billion of net credit losses.

Question three: what happens to expenses?

Costs are the quiet risk in these reports. Analysts at Seaport Research Partners said ahead of JPMorgan's release that they were above consensus on expenses and that the bank could guide them higher. Citigroup has set a target return on tangible common equity of 10% to 11% for 2026, and investors will check whether it is on track.

Why the stocks matter

Bank shares go into the reports on the back foot. The S&P 500 Banks index fell 5.4% in the third quarter while the broader S&P 500 rose about 2.3%, according to CNBC, and a Reuters-cited analysis put the bank index about 13% below its August high.

History offers a caution about reading the headline beat alone. Data from Bespoke Investment Group shows JPMorgan has topped analysts' earnings estimates 82% of the time, yet its shares fell after four of its last five reports. Management commentary on the calls, which run from 8:30 a.m. to 11 a.m. ET, often moves the stocks more than the earnings figure itself.

What to watch

Investment banking and trading revenue against the September guidance, net interest income and credit-loss provisions, and any change to full-year outlooks. The answers will shape how investors read Wednesday's reports from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, and the September inflation data due the same morning.